Favorable prospects for US economic growth?

Slow down temporary? Virtually all over the world, the focus is shifting back towards a growth-led economic model. Policymakers are increasingly prepared to take the risks we listed earlier. Not just central bank governors but the fiscal authorities as well. Even to the extent of allowing public debt to expand – just as long as growth rates improve. This changing mentality should be viewed in...

End quantitative easing causing bear market later this year?

This blog written by head analyst Edward Markus Presently, many economic forecasts are revised down; not least because growth has declined in recent months. In the US this is because of the fiscal tightening measures, in China it is due to deteriorating exports and restrictions on lending, while growth in Europe has slowed on the back of deficit reduction and sluggish credit supply. For the...

Euro Crisis Could Erupt Later This Year

In the past period, there were signs of renewed confidence in the euro. Not least because the European currency held firm in the face of Italian political uncertainty and the Cyprus crisis. Simultaneously, the yield spreads between government bonds of the weak Eurozone countries and Germany continued to narrow. This, too, suggested that investors were beginning to have more faith in Europe. To an...

Merkel and the banker’s dilemma

In all likelihood, as soon as central banks stop creating money, artificially boosted asset prices will nosedive, even if economic growth is picking up. Once that happens, the fundamental weaknesses of today’s economies (especially in the weak EMU countries) will immediately come to light. This is exactly what Mrs. Merkel is afraid of. We can describe the current situation as follows....

Stormy weather ahead for Europe and Eurozone?

The last couple of days we have seen lots of things happening in Europe that confirm and reinforce the vulnerable position Europe is in: corruption keeps rearing its ugly head, politicians are under fire everywhere, political institutions are losing legitimacy and trust by the bucket load, economic stats and numbers keep disappointing and courts around Europe are threatening structural...

Eurozone taxpayers no longer footing the bill after Cyprus?

Dijsselbloem under fire The financial press has been very critical of the utterings of Jeroen Dijsselbloem, Dutch finance minister and Eurogroup chief. Whether or not his words were conveyed correctly, the intended meaning is clear. Following the Cyprus debacle, next time a Eurozone bank gets into trouble, the taxpayer should not have to foot the bill alone. Instead, the onus will be on (in a...